From: The New York Times <nytdirect@nytimes.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 25, 2024 at 6:25 AM
Subject: The Morning: Autocracies against Ukraine
To: <sipantichijk@gmail.com>
Good morning. We're covering North Korean troops in Russia — as well as Project 2025, enigmas in space and food on Facebook Marketplace.
An axis against democracyThe 3,000 North Korean troops boarded ships in the port city of Wonsan earlier this month and made the journey up the coast to Vladivostok, in Russia's southeastern corner. From there, they moved to three military training sites in Russia's Far East, according to U.S. officials. Ukrainian officials say that the troops have since traveled west to fight against Ukraine.
"If their intention is to participate in this war on Russia's behalf, that is a very, very serious issue," Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, said this week. Countries do not lightly send their own citizens to fight in another country's war. That North Korea may be doing so on Russia's behalf is the latest sign of increasing cooperation among four authoritarian countries — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — that seek to weaken the U.S.-led alliance of mostly democratic countries, like South Korea, Japan and many European nations. The emergence of this authoritarian axis has been a theme of The Morning because I think it's a major development. Today, I'll explain the latest news. 'This isn't NATO'The four countries have clear ideological similarities. All are autocracies that repress dissent through imprisonment and death. (In an early instance of cooperation, China helped Iran shut down its internet during pro-democracy protests 15 years ago.) To varying degrees, the countries are also hostile to political equality: Few women hold senior government roles. L.G.B.T.Q. citizens and ethnic minorities are repressed. Religious freedom is restricted. But the four do not share a consistent ideology, as the Soviet bloc did during the Cold War or much of NATO does today. Iran, for example, is an Islamist theocracy, while China and Russia oppress their Muslim minorities. "This isn't NATO," my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence, said. "It's a much more complex dynamic."
The countries' common goal is to weaken the U.S. and its allies. Doing so could reduce the appeal of democracy. It could allow China to become dominant in the Pacific Ocean and more influential elsewhere. Russia and Iran could have more influence over their own regions, and North Korea's government could minimize the risk of collapse. "What these states do share," the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace concluded this month, "is an autocratic antipathy for the liberal aspects of the U.S.-led order, which they believe threatens their very existence." Today's two warsThis shared goal explains why the world's two recent major wars — the first in Ukraine and Russia, the second in the Middle East — have led to more cooperation among the autocratic countries. Both wars have created opportunities to weaken the U.S.-led alliance. In Ukraine, even a partial Russian victory would be a setback for democracy. The war has been the largest in Europe in almost 80 years, with an authoritarian country invading a democratic neighbor. If Russia wins, it will suggest, as The Times has written, "that the West, with all its firepower, cannot prevail far from its shores." That possibility has led to a concerted effort to help Russia. Iran has sent munitions, Shahed drones and ballistic missiles. North Korea has sent artillery shells and now troops. China has sent technology that can be used in weapons and has bought Russian oil to help Vladimir Putin's economy evade international sanctions. In the Middle East, the cooperation has not been as extensive, but it is still notable. When Hamas (which Iran funds) attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, it used North Korean grenade launchers. After the attack, Chinese and Russian groups filled social media with antisemitic, pro-Hamas posts. In recent weeks, Viktor Bout — a Russian arms dealer who's close to Putin and whom the U.S. freed in a 2022 prisoner exchange — has tried to sell arms to the Houthis, another Iran-backed group. (The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Russia helped the Houthis attack Western ships in the Red Sea — and disrupt global commerce — this year.) Why do these other countries care about the Middle East? It's about chaos. A major reason that Hamas attacked on Oct. 7 was to disrupt the progress toward a diplomatic deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, two U.S. allies, that could have increased regional stability. Instead, the war has caused diplomatic tensions within the U.S.-led alliance. The resulting chaos has become another chance for China and Russia to weaken that alliance. Harris vs. TrumpStill, there are limits to the autocratic partnership. China is by far its most powerful member and benefits from some kinds of international stability. The Chinese economy relies on an integrated global system. For that reason, the Carnegie Endowment report argued that a crucial way to reduce cooperation among the four autocracies would be for the U.S. and its allies to avoid fully isolating China. The next big question is what happens in the U.S. presidential election. Iran's leaders have made clear that they are rooting for Kamala Harris because of Donald Trump's strong anti-Iran stance. China's and Russia's leaders have made it clear that they are rooting for Trump. They see him as an agent of chaos who will help their global ambitions. For more
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