Reply-To: "The Bleeding Edge Feedback" <reply-L4JKE2D3H3JUNFONOKLRGKVMFU.70246@e.brownstoneresearch.com>
[1]
Blockchains to Be Hacked by Quantum Computers
[2]
Jeff Brown [3]
Founder and CEO
[4]
-------------------------
Easily, one of the most frequent questions I receive from subscribers is
about the risk of quantum computers being able to hack blockchain
technology.
This has always been a valid concern.
After all, quantum computers will be capable of breaking the _current_
encryption used by most blockchains.
The real question is “_in what time frame?_”
Most “experts” have said that this is a decade or more away.
_Nothing to worry about._
However, I’ve maintained that it will happen within the next few
years, given the exponential improvement that we’ve been seeing in
quantum computing technology.
It is coming fast.
The time to harden blockchain technology is right now.
And the good news is, given that blockchain technology is based on
software, the software can be updated and upgraded with new forms of
encryption resilient to quantum technology.
Those that don’t will be in deep trouble.
Quantum’s Early Warning Signal
Early this morning, Google’s Quantum AI division published some
brand-new research.
And I know it will create quite a stir.
Many will say that it is fear-based, too aggressive, or unrealistic.
It’s not.
It’s very accurate and should be taken seriously by the industry.
Google is in a unique place to provide projections about the
technological advancements of quantum computing technology, given that
it is an industry leader with its superconducting quantum computer.
Google’s Quantum Computer | _Source: Google_
Its latest version is based on its state-of-the-art quantum chip,
_Willow_, which was announced in December 2024 [5], igniting the quantum
computing industry and sending related stocks to irrational valuations.
The frenzy wasn’t caused by the new quantum chip itself, but by the
new _quantum error correction_ technology developed by Google, resulting
in exponentially improved fidelity.
The market has calmed down dramatically in the last six months, but the
frenetic race towards developing a universal fault-tolerant quantum
computer has only intensified.
Today’s paper, titled _Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies
against Quantum Vulnerabilities: Resource Estimates and Mitigations_
[6], highlights the rapid improvements in quantum computing and the risk
of this technology to blockchains and their native digital assets –
cryptocurrencies.
More specifically, it highlights how quantum computers will be able to
break the elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) that is used by most
blockchains for security.
Google highlights that most blockchains use the elliptic curve discrete
logarithm problem (ECDLP-256) for providing security for blockchain
transactions.
This is done using an algorithm – the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature
Algorithm (ECDSA) – which is how the ECDLP is practically implemented
for digital signatures and authentication on blockchains.
Here’s why we should pay attention:
* Both Bitcoin and Ethereum use elliptic curve cryptography and will be
impacted by quantum computers.
* Solana and Cardano both use the Edwards-curve Digital Signature
Algorithm (EdDSA), which uses elliptical curves for security.
* Polkadot and Internet Computer also use Schnorr signatures, which are
also elliptic curve-based.
At a high level, more than 99% of the entire total value locked on
blockchains, representing total economic activity, is on blockchains
that use elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) of one sort or another.
Said another way, the entire economic value of cryptocurrencies is at
risk with the current ECC being used due to developments in quantum
computing.
Does that mean that the entire crypto industry will collapse?
No, definitely not.
But it _does_ mean that the industry needs to pull in their timelines
for upgrading their cryptographic technologies.
A Truncated Timeline
One of the key findings in Google’s research is that it will take a
lot less quantum computing resources to crack the ECC used by so many
blockchains than previously thought.
In the chart below, we can see previous quantum resource requirements
noted by the blue circles, and the latest work by Google noted by the
red stars.
_Source: Google Quantum AI_
Quantum computing systems that are low and to the left of the chart (the
red stars) require far less quantum computational resources to break
ECC.
Google estimates that it is now possible to do so with only
1,200–1,450 logical quantum bits (qubits), which can be established
with a superconducting quantum computer that has 500,000 physical
qubits.
And it can be cracked in just a few minutes.
Google is defining this as a cryptographically relevant quantum computer
(CRQC), and it is projecting that this will be achieved by 2029.
To state the obvious, that’s just a few years away.
Today, I estimate that Google’s Quantum AI team has achieved Milestone
3 and is working on Milestone 4. And the company will attain Milestone
5, which is the scale at which it will be capable of a quantum computer
with 500,000 physical qubits.
Google Quantum AI Roadmap | _Source: Google_
The industry should take this prediction very seriously and get to work
on post-quantum cryptography to secure their respective blockchains.
And while this is both feasible in practice, there is some nuance in the
significance of this problem, particularly with the Bitcoin blockchain.
[7]
Musk's 106x AI Breakthrough Will Shock the World [8]
Google, OpenAI and Bezos say this AI breakthrough [9] is a decade
away… Jeff Brown says Musk could announce it as soon as April 24, and
kickstart a massive 106x market boom. Click Here To See How To Play This
While There's Still Time [10]
-------------------------
[11]
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to watch the replay before it comes down. >>> [13]
-------------------------
The Evolution of Blockchain Software
As with nearly all software, it evolves over time.
This is most certainly true of Bitcoin’s blockchain protocol.
Below is a perfect example of how blockchain software evolves.
Bitcoin’s Evolving Protocol | _Source: Google_
Above, we can see the evolution of the Bitcoin blockchain protocol as it
pertains to _transaction output scripts_, which are used to transact on
Bitcoin’s blockchain.
As we can see, two protocols (shown in tan and light gray) dominated
transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain from the beginning through
mid-2018.
Since then, several new scripts have gained much larger adoption.
The problem is that some of these older scripts are particularly
vulnerable to a quantum computing hack.
And about 17.3% of all Bitcoin that has been “dormant” – coins
that have been sitting, untouched, in crypto wallets – for 10 years or
more is vulnerable.
Related, and as shown below, about 1.7 million Bitcoin were transacted
using those old, vulnerable transaction output scripts.
_Source: Google_
What this all means is that hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of
Bitcoin are at risk in the absence of an upgrade to the Bitcoin
blockchain to make it resistant to quantum computing tasks.
And even with a blockchain upgrade, it doesn’t solve the problem of
what to do with all those dormant Bitcoin.
36 Months to Solve
Google suggests three possible public policy solutions. The main goal of
these solutions is to avoid the dormant assets falling into the hands of
bad actors (criminals and/or rogue nation states):
* Regulated destruction of dormant assets – this is an unlikely
option. Legally, it is problematic as it is the destruction of personal
assets without consent. Destroying the dormant assets would also require
the blockchain to be rewritten, which would be very expensive to
perform. One solution, however, might be for the government to require
Bitcoin miners to block any transactions from dormant Bitcoin, thus
making the theft unobtainable, but this would be equivalent to
censorship of private assets, which creates its own set of legal
problems.
* Digital salvage – The dormant assets could be declared unclaimed
property, and a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) could
be used to salvage all lost and abandoned Bitcoin proactively, before a
bad actor could do the same.
* National security response – If the U.S. government (or any other
government) felt that the risk of the dormant Bitcoin falling into the
hands of bad actors would be a national security risk, it may decide to
secure them to avoid an unwanted outcome that could potentially fund
terrorism or depress the price of Bitcoin, thus decreasing the value of
the U.S. government’s Bitcoin assets.
None of these solutions is perfect.
The Bitcoin community also has some ideas on what to do with the dormant
Bitcoin as well, and they are not much better…
The best of which is to establish a “bad sidechain,” which would be
a centrally managed sidechain holding all of the dormant assets, in
hopes of authenticating and resolving ownership of those dormant assets
over a long period of time.
It’s also worth noting that this issue is much larger than the total
market cap of all cryptocurrencies, which now stands at $2.35 trillion.
Cryptographic security of blockchains impacts the total value of all
assets that have been tokenized and placed on blockchains.
Which is to say _tens of trillions_ of dollars in the coming years.
This has become an urgent matter for the digital assets industry to
solve.
And they have less than 36 months to solve it.
Fortunately, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
has spent more than a decade preparing for this moment.
And industry support has already defined post-quantum cryptography (PQC)
standards [14] for exactly this purpose, something I’ve written about
quite a bit in the past.
Google Quantum AI’s research paper today is a good wakeup call for the
whole industry.
And if all these developments aren’t concerning enough, it is worth
pointing out that the entire traditional finance industry is at an equal
or greater risk compared to the blockchain industry. All of the current
encryption used by traditional finance will be easily hacked by a
cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) in the same timeframe
or less.
It’s time for a post-quantum cryptography upgrade [15],
_Jeff_
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[19] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6ImVjMTQ2Nzg3LThiMmEtNGFmMi05NWM3LTllNDI2NmZiNGNjOSIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiRnBNbHFwa21idVJINTFIZ0JqQ2pxUT09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6IlMxOEJGYW5sU2loem5reE5jZk5MWXdobGhFbEppOUJmeWE0QTEwTDhvaU1WQUtscHpPZTV6OElFZUdYZXpmVWVLOFRIRXpPL1Jnb1BpS1dDQ2FrZ1hSQkVNR0xDcWhhVEphcVpKbTdrUitkUjRBWXdvNms9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IlJnb1BpS1dDQ2FrZ1hSQkVNR0xDcWc9PSJ9
[20] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6ImZhN2EyNDE0LTkwYjMtNDg0Zi05NjcwLTdlNzNmYjEwZjVmMSIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiVW1JbCs4VnJiTk1nQU9MT3RqVVpodz09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6IkVPbHJwRVREM1dvYzhNOG5nR2REd2tJME1rbUVLejBtWlFQKzcvMU14bTJSNUV1NUlWSkdnSng5STdQbkxnSG5uQWhzR2lTd1lZM056RVhyZDB6WGozVXdLL3BvWUZKaUpmdkZhMnpUSUFEaXpyWTFHWWM9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IllZM056RVhyZDB6WGozVXdLL3BvWUE9PSJ9
[21] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6ImIyOGE2ZWQyLWEwMDMtNDI0OC1hMGVhLWNlZTMwYTczYWZjNCIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoicTRVRmFIV0lRdC9kWUJ2cEd4elBVZz09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6ImMwR1lVOUJhY0Myb1NDR2RNdHhIdVhCYWxYcHVLMmFXUjlrZmN1R1c1RUJDd0xpWUs3UkRDblpZRDJ3VlMzSDRSdWxCZ3cxTHRtMlBTcUtLcVFuQXg5YytrOGg1bzZ1RkJXaDFpRUxmM1dBYjZSc2N6MUk9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6InRtMlBTcUtLcVFuQXg5YytrOGg1b3c9PSJ9
[22] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6IjU0MzBhYzlkLWQ4NzktNDA4Ni04NjYxLTJjY2ZmNDM1MDY5ZCIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiN2JlNDZ0Y2REV3FKdGhyNXljVDBBZz09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6ImtXMjVDR0JqeVIrSkNZN0lSSzJsZFIraTA5UGgzWW5teFNwMVJZbVlzRzhibC9rSTI0aDA4OS9EZy8zYTZmMWR0dWhPeWZXejF4TVFQd0dHcGVOZU90bDEycU5MemUyM3VPclhIUTFxaWJZYStjbkU5QUk9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IjF4TVFQd0dHcGVOZU90bDEycU5MelE9PSJ9
[23] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6ImFiMzMzMDE3LWNiODctNGQwZS1iOWU4LTA0YWE3ZmQ3MjRiMCIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiRzIyaUNpejV5SUxCQmsxVlUwY2NiZz09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6ImpXZ29sS3REcW81TnVGRGFxVGw0UEYrVllrRjVyMlFzRDJYSFJMeG03dTU5VzNaOWovdGVROWx5OHhzaCt6ZHNHSkZCbkxmaCtFbHhpNFp4WnRxVDNEdWlqRi9LL0J0dG9nb3MrY2lDd1FaTlZWTkhIRzQ9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IitFbHhpNFp4WnRxVDNEdWlqRi9LL0E9PSJ9
[24] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6IjI0OWY3NWY0LWE5YmMtNDBmNC1hNTM2LTUwYzQxMjAzOGM4YSIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiTVJIMUpFMDd5VVVlRmRBQVVrand4UT09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6InVib2hxY2d2azZwdVBMcXpjRENsNXFDMElWZ3RZalNCbVMrUkJpaDZFZ3ZRVUR5T1ZMaHJYUXl0OWo5ZFZxVWZza05OTFo2T1JaUFYzd3pUMkoxNHdxd3o0b3cvQWpFUjlTUk5POGxGSGhYUUFGSkk4TVU9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IlJaUFYzd3pUMkoxNHdxd3o0b3cvQWc9PSJ9
[25] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6IjBkY2ZmOGRmLTNiOGQtNGNiOC1hNzhkLWE0NDFmMzM1YjVlMyIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiM1ltOTBpd2szQnp0bzdyZlJ4cTloUT09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6Im1JOTltWVc2anhuOXczeTJDVkpwQjRZdWplSHFUR2s3MmFtK2w2RjkrZFhWR01oT1ZhMk4wZ09DYkNXNW9iTkwwc1ptcGdScmpHa0gyWnYwNWYyQjNIMlN5RkdjRnQySnZkSXNKTndjN2FPNjMwY2F2WVU9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6ImpHa0gyWnYwNWYyQjNIMlN5RkdjRmc9PSJ9
[26] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6ImVjNTdiZGM1LTQ3ODgtNGRiNC05OGU5LTYzZjU1NTBiZWYyYiIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoidGFBYXdTajJHL3JybzROUkZWMXpEQT09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6ImhtT0JuMERLSm85UkJHRjlzb2Y5cit0WnhuZ3hGbjlDMm00MmREdkowSUxkVlo0YXdqSTBUUW1CcWJ2djVQbFdJdUxRK1ltOXBWc0puVEZDLzRpZVdJTU16UDNPYWJXZ0dzRW85aHY2NjZPRFVSVmRjd3c9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6InBWc0puVEZDLzRpZVdJTU16UDNPYVE9PSJ9
[27] https://click.e.brownstoneresearch.com/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6IjE5M2JiMTFkLWVjYzItNDhkZS1hZTY5LWMzNTI2ZDY4YTAwNyIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiN3Y3eWxzYnUvVnNTelByeWxPUWtSUT09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6Im1kQ3I3a2IzdTgzdVY3NjRKVzBHeDRnUWFzU0ZDMEhHN2Mxd2tmVUlsRXczN3dOSU5FQ2FWOHlTZVRiVGtnQnY5U2tYeE9SMkxVWTlBSThSZXJ4dlVQZ3FpTmxRYnU3KzhwYkc3djFiRXN6NjhwVGtKRVU9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IkxVWTlBSThSZXJ4dlVQZ3FpTmxRYmc9PSJ9
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